Zürcher Nachrichten - Kuwait refinery hit as Iran says missile production 'no concern'

Despite calls for an end to targeting Gulf energy infrastructure by European leaders on Thursday, Kuwait reported a fire at its Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery, a day after a direct hit on Qatar's vital Ras Laffan facility.

Iranian authorities had vowed to retaliate after an Israeli strike on Wednesday damaged its South Pars gas field, which draws on the world's biggest known gas reserve and is vital for domestic supplies.

The escalating damage to Gulf infrastructure has spiked oil and gas prices again and led to fears of lasting damage to global supplies, even as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicated an end to the fighting could be close.

"We are winning and Iran is being decimated," the Israeli premier said at a press conference on Thursday, claiming Tehran no longer had the capacity to manufacture ballistic missiles.

"This war is ending a lot faster than people think," he added without providing a specific timeframe.

Iran's leaders, despite an Israeli assassination campaign and three weeks of bombardment, have vowed to end the conflict on their own terms.

"Our missile industry deserves a perfect score... and there is no concern in this regard, because even under wartime conditions we continue missile production," Iran's Revolutionary Guards spokesman Ali Mohammad Naini was quoted as saying by the Fars news agency.

Moments after his message was shared by the agency, the Revolutionary Guards said he had been killed in US-Israeli strikes.

Iran retains a stranglehold over the strategic Strait of Hormuz through which a fifth of global oil and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) usually flows.

Iranian state media reported several waves of missiles fired at Israel overnight and Friday morning, with blasts heard over Jerusalem. There were no reports of casualties.

The United Arab Emirates also reported missile attacks, while Saudi Arabia intercepted more than a dozen drones early Friday as Gulf nations began the observation of Eid al-Fitr, the holiday that marks the end of the Islamic fasting month of Ramadan.

- Escalation -

Energy analysts and consumers were scrambling to count the cost of Iranian missiles hitting Qatar's huge Ras Laffan natural gas complex on Thursday.

The attack caused "extensive damage" that Qatar's state energy company said could cost $20 billion a year in lost revenue and take five years to repair.

That could lead to high energy prices that outlast the conflict, which would increase inflation and crimp consumer spending.

"Short disruptions create price volatility. Sustained damage creates lasting economic shock," Robert Pape, a political science and military expert at the University of Chicago, wrote on his Substack.

"This is how a regional war becomes an historic global economic crisis."

He warned about further escalation that could include US President Donald Trump and Netanyahu ordering a limited ground invasion to try to secure the Strait of Hormuz.

Netanyahu indicated that changing the government in Tehran would require "a ground component", without elaborating.

"There are many possibilities for this ground component and I take the liberty of not sharing (those) with you," he said.

Oil prices fell on Friday as traders reacted to Netanyahu's comments about the war ending "a lot faster than people think", but they pared the losses amid news of the Kuwait refinery fire.

Brent remains at around $108 and West Texas Intermediate about $94.

- Bitter festivals -

The war, which has killed thousands and displaced millions, has quickly spread to Lebanon where the Israeli military has carried out regular bombardments in response to rocket fire on Israel by Iran ally Hezbollah.

Lebanon's health ministry said the death toll from Israeli airstrikes on southern and eastern Lebanon as well as on the capital Beirut and its southern suburbs has surpassed 1,000.

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, during a meeting with French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot on Thursday, renewed a call for a truce between Israel and Hezbollah and the opening of negotiations that France's president later said depended on Israel agreeing to join.

Many around the region ended the holy month of Ramadan on a bitter note, unsettled by the war and facing rising prices.

"There's nothing to celebrate," said Aziza Ahmad, who has cancelled her family's normal plans for a festive meal and gifts for the children, her small Beirut apartment hosting several displaced relatives.

"Maybe it's different for the rich, but the joy of Eid is missing here... We have no money, and the displaced people can't even go back home," she said.

Iranians were marking the new year spring festival of Nowruz on Friday, as well as the final day of Ramadan, with state media reporting Iran would observe the start of the Eid holiday on Saturday.

Hoda, who lives in Saveh, south of Tehran, said she would "definitely gather with family" and even travel to the capital, which has seen some of the worst of the war's strikes.

"We assume and hope that there will be no attacks on the first day of the new year," she told an AFP reporter based outside Iran.

As concerns grow over the conflict's economic fallout, President Emmanuel Macron said France planned to talk with permanent members of the UN Security Council about establishing a framework to secure navigation in the Strait of Hormuz -- but only after fighting had stopped.

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