Zürcher Nachrichten - US bank profits jump as execs see consumers surviving oil spike, for now

JPMorgan Chase notched gains across leading consumer and investment bank categories.

CEO Jamie Dimon described the US economy as still healthy but facing an "increasingly complex set of risks," including volatile energy prices, trade uncertainty and large deficits.

Profits at the largest US lender by assets came in at $16.5 billion, up 13 percent from the year-ago level, while revenues jumped 10 percent to $49.8 billion.

The spike in oil prices has translated into national gasoline prices above $4 a gallon for the first time since August 2022, a political headwind for US President Donald Trump.

While higher gasoline prices pose a greater strain on lower income households, Dimon said a solid US employment market remained a supporting factor.

"Always the most important thing is jobs," Dimon said on a conference call with journalists. "And there's plenty of jobs. Unemployment is relatively low."

Some of the drivers of JPMorgan's higher profit were increased consumer deposits and credit card balances that more than offset the impact of lower interest rates.

At Citigroup, profits climbed 42 percent to $5.8 billion, while revenues rose 14 percent to $24.6 billion.

The lender enjoyed broad-based growth across its businesses, led by its markets and services divisions. But the bank raised its provision for credit losses by about $600 million, citing increased uncertainty in the macroeconomic outlook.

Chief Financial Officer Gonzalo Luchetti described the US consumer as resilient, noting a stable level of delinquent payments over time.

The increased provisions are "really out of prudence that we want to make sure that we are always well reserved for a range of environments," Luchetti said on a conference call.

Wells Fargo reported first-quarter profits of $5.2 billion, up seven percent from the year-ago level. Revenues rose six percent to $21.4 billion.

Chief Executive Charlie Scharf attributed the higher profits to increased loans and deposits, also describing client credit as solid.

"While markets have been volatile, we still see continued resiliency in the underlying economy and the financial health of the consumers and businesses we serve remains strong, though the impact of higher oil prices will likely take some time to materialize," Scharf said.

"We will continue to monitor trends and respond accordingly."

- Private credit -

A looming question around this earnings cycle has been anxiety in financial circles over private credit after a wave of redemption requests to investment giants in recent weeks.

In October, Dimon issued a colorful warning on the topic after the bankruptcy of Tricolor, a subprime auto lender, saying, "when you see one cockroach, there are probably more."

Dimon expressed measured concern Tuesday, saying that in general, private credit quality has not deteriorated significantly, although "there are pockets where it has," he told an analyst conference call.

"So we'll be watching it closely," Dimon said. "The big point to me is...that I don't think it's systemic," he said.

Dimon's comments were consistent with those Monday by Goldman Sachs Chief Executive David Solomon, who expects greater losses with the turn in the credit cycle when there is a recession or another triggering event.

JPMorgan finished down 0.8 percent, while Citi climbed 2.6 percent. Wells Fargo, which missed analyst estimates on revenues and some other benchmarks, dropped 5.7 percent.

W.Vogt--NZN