Zürcher Nachrichten - Iran nuclear talks nearing 'decision point'

EUR -
AED 4.108088
AFN 78.847591
ALL 98.264846
AMD 433.946887
ANG 2.001665
AOA 1025.618398
ARS 1265.519883
AUD 1.738504
AWG 2.013209
AZN 1.897899
BAM 1.950106
BBD 2.261138
BDT 136.063334
BGN 1.955943
BHD 0.42159
BIF 3282.648936
BMD 1.118449
BND 1.452585
BOB 7.738613
BRL 6.292062
BSD 1.11985
BTN 95.435936
BWP 15.204877
BYN 3.664865
BYR 21921.607883
BZD 2.249472
CAD 1.562502
CDF 3209.949582
CHF 0.941284
CLF 0.027437
CLP 1052.740903
CNY 8.059937
CNH 8.064367
COP 4701.401976
CRC 568.749551
CUC 1.118449
CUP 29.638909
CVE 109.943008
CZK 24.934042
DJF 198.770873
DKK 7.461187
DOP 65.820383
DZD 149.154149
EGP 56.349945
ERN 16.776741
ETB 148.691965
FJD 2.53737
FKP 0.842357
GBP 0.842562
GEL 3.064645
GGP 0.842357
GHS 13.92501
GIP 0.842357
GMD 81.084886
GNF 9681.297858
GTQ 8.603572
GYD 234.290116
HKD 8.732014
HNL 29.124484
HRK 7.53265
HTG 146.533466
HUF 403.039957
IDR 18536.061604
ILS 3.962907
IMP 0.842357
INR 95.592869
IQD 1467.029723
IRR 47100.716049
ISK 145.096078
JEP 0.842357
JMD 178.738125
JOD 0.793314
JPY 164.0782
KES 144.841672
KGS 97.808316
KHR 4496.166646
KMF 492.537115
KPW 1006.632948
KRW 1569.070368
KWD 0.343979
KYD 0.933192
KZT 568.928511
LAK 24216.643341
LBP 100339.52277
LKR 334.325341
LRD 223.970063
LSL 20.420746
LTL 3.30249
LVL 0.676539
LYD 6.177962
MAD 10.395355
MDL 19.530325
MGA 5005.251547
MKD 61.525791
MMK 2348.053482
MNT 4001.416621
MOP 9.002276
MRU 44.467767
MUR 51.482548
MVR 17.279827
MWK 1941.761054
MXN 21.669828
MYR 4.797706
MZN 71.479805
NAD 20.421656
NGN 1792.270573
NIO 41.209861
NOK 11.608162
NPR 152.705864
NZD 1.894122
OMR 0.430576
PAB 1.1198
PEN 4.104733
PGK 4.652375
PHP 62.407234
PKR 315.373591
PLN 4.232699
PYG 8940.894618
QAR 4.083078
RON 5.104492
RSD 116.870854
RUB 89.894952
RWF 1604.144946
SAR 4.195454
SBD 9.351747
SCR 15.900204
SDG 671.629641
SEK 10.900856
SGD 1.454862
SHP 0.878926
SLE 25.444392
SLL 23453.32455
SOS 640.042666
SRD 40.712117
STD 23149.644062
SVC 9.798566
SYP 14541.748012
SZL 20.409678
THB 37.400575
TJS 11.607217
TMT 3.920165
TND 3.379134
TOP 2.619526
TRY 43.365188
TTD 7.580004
TWD 33.944153
TZS 3019.176959
UAH 46.491854
UGX 4091.055048
USD 1.118449
UYU 46.783403
UZS 14485.705031
VES 103.955393
VND 29001.392469
VUV 134.356846
WST 3.118873
XAF 654.058992
XAG 0.034713
XAU 0.000352
XCD 3.022665
XDR 0.821655
XOF 654.04733
XPF 119.331742
YER 273.405634
ZAR 20.426521
ZMK 10067.392492
ZMW 29.816742
ZWL 360.140245
  • RIO

    -0.2350

    62.035

    -0.38%

  • RBGPF

    0.8100

    63.81

    +1.27%

  • CMSC

    -0.0950

    21.965

    -0.43%

  • NGG

    -0.1000

    67.43

    -0.15%

  • RYCEF

    -0.1700

    10.53

    -1.61%

  • RELX

    0.6400

    53.04

    +1.21%

  • BTI

    -0.1500

    40.54

    -0.37%

  • VOD

    -0.0200

    9.04

    -0.22%

  • SCS

    -0.1600

    10.55

    -1.52%

  • CMSD

    -0.1200

    22.27

    -0.54%

  • GSK

    -0.1200

    36.23

    -0.33%

  • JRI

    -0.1100

    12.77

    -0.86%

  • AZN

    -1.4900

    66.23

    -2.25%

  • BP

    -0.2100

    30.35

    -0.69%

  • BCC

    -2.9430

    90.767

    -3.24%

  • BCE

    -0.7100

    21.27

    -3.34%

Iran nuclear talks nearing 'decision point'
Iran nuclear talks nearing 'decision point'

Iran nuclear talks nearing 'decision point'

Several world powers have indicated that a deal -- at least in principle -- to revive the Iran nuclear accord may be just days away, but experts warn that failure still cannot be ruled out.

Text size:

The 2015 accord had offered Tehran sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on its nuclear programme, but the US unilaterally withdrew in 2018 under then-president Donald Trump and reimposed heavy economic sanctions, prompting Iran to start ramping up its nuclear activities.

The outline of a new deal appears to be on the table in talks which have been held in Vienna since late November between signatories Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia -- and the United States indirectly.

"The West, Russia, and China appear to be more aligned than at any prior point," said Henry Rome, analyst with the Eurasia Group.

The strategy of the world powers appears to be "pressuring Iran to bring the talks to a conclusion," the analyst said, adding that the negotiations appeared to nearing a "decision point".

A diplomatic source in Vienna confirmed this week that there had been "advances" in the talks.

The US State Department said on Thursday that "substantial progress" had been made, and that an agreement was possible within days if Iran "shows seriousness".

The day before French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian had said a deal was "within grasp" but that "a serious crisis" was still possible if Iran refused to accept the proposals of the other parties.

Experts believe Iran is only a few weeks away from having enough fissile material to build a nuclear weapon -- even if it would take several more complicated steps to create an actual bomb.

Iran has always denied it wanted to acquire atomic weapons, and on Thursday supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called such claims "absurd".

- Points of contention -

The stumbling blocks in the way of a new deal have long been clear.

The points of contention "have been on the table from the very beginning," said Ali Vaez, Iran specialist at the International Crisis Group.

They include which sanctions will be lifted and whether Washington can offer Tehran any guarantees against the possibility of a future US president repeating Trump's move.

Tehran also wants to know that companies and banks venturing back into Iran will not be penalised by potential future American sanctions.

"I think both sides believed that the other would blink and give more concessions on these issues at the last minute," Vaez said.

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said this week that his country wanted "political statements" from the parliaments of the other signatories -- including the US Congress -- underlining their commitment to the deal.

"Iran's commitments are as clear as a mathematical formula," he said.

Vaez said that "on the question of scope of sanctions relief, I think there is more room for manoeuvre on the West's side."

"But the reality is that on the question of guarantees, there's really nothing that the US can do and offer," he added, given the difficulty of binding the hands of a future administration.

- Best and worst case scenarios -

Echoing Amir-Abdollahian, Iran's top negotiator Ali Bagheri called on the other parties to "avoid intransigence".

"We are closer than ever to an agreement; nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, though," he tweeted earlier this week.

Two scenarios are possible in the current conditions, according to Vaez.

"If, in the next few days, the Iranians don't back off from some of their demands, then I think what you're likely to see is a Western walkout," he said.

That could lead to a resolution criticising Iran being put forward at the next Board of Governors meeting of the UN nuclear watchdog the International Atomic Energy Agency, due to begin on March 7.

Vaez said this could be the first step in a "cycle of escalation".

However, faced with multiple security crises in other parts of the world, Vaez said "the last thing the Biden administration wants" is a nuclear proliferation headache in Iran.

The more optimistic scenario would entail "a breakthrough in... the next four or five days" opening the door for a deal being "announced towards the end of this month or early March".

According to analyst Rome, even the "soft deadline" of March 7 may slip by, "especially if Iran continues talking, given significant reluctance in the West to pivot to an alternative strategy".

L.Rossi--NZN