Zürcher Nachrichten - Bolsonaro verdict looms as Brazil coup trial closes

Bolsonaro risks over 40 years in prison if convicted of conspiring to cling onto power despite losing 2022 elections to leftist rival Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

A guilty verdict could also scupper his hopes of making a Trump-style comeback from a criminal conviction to the country's top job.

The landmark case is the first of a former Brazilian president on coup charges.

Bolsonaro and his seven co-accused, including several former ministers and generals, should learn their fate by September 12.

The 70-year-old single-term president, who is under house arrest, will not be in court for the verdict, his lawyer Celso Vilardi told AFP on Monday.

- Democracy test or show trial? -

The case has deeply divided Brazil between those in favor, who view it as a test of the vitality of Brazil's democracy 40 years after the end of a military dictatorship, and those who view it as a political show trial.

Trump is firmly in the latter camp.

He has denounced a "witch hunt" and imposed a 50 percent tariff on a variety of exports from Brazil, plunging relations between the two allies into crisis.

The US Treasury has also sanctioned the presiding judge and longtime Bolsonaro nemesis, Alexandre de Moraes, a figure of hate on the Brazilian and US right.

Bolsonaro's supporters have welcomed Trump's interventionism.

"Thanks to these measures, they (the accused) see that they are not alone, that there is someone above them who can make a difference," Carlos Sergio Alcantara, a businessman who took part in a Bolsonaro solidarity rally on Sunday, told AFP.

Five judges will determine the ex-president's fate, and a simple majority of three is needed for a guilty verdict.

Security has been stepped up around the Supreme Court in Brasilia ahead of the ruling.

On January 8, 2023, the court was one of three buildings, along with the presidential palace and parliament, that were stormed by Bolsonaro supporters calling for the military to depose Lula a week after his inauguration.

Bolsonaro was in the United States at the time but has been accused of instigating the unrest.

Prosecutors accuse him of leading a "criminal organization" that conspired to prevent Lula taking office, saying that his attacks on Brazil's electronic voting system months before the vote aimed to discredit the election.

They charge that, after his defeat, Bolsonaro planned to declare a state of emergency and call new elections but failed to win the support of the military top brass.

Prosecutors also allege that he knew of a plan to assassinate Lula, his vice president Geraldo Alckmin and Moraes, which was later abandoned.

Bolsonaro denies all the charges and claims he is the victim of political persecution.

- Bid for amnesty -

On Tuesday, Moraes will start summarizing the evidence presented in the case, after which the prosecution and defense will present closing arguments.

The judges will then next week vote, one by one, to convict or acquit Bolsonaro and his co-accused before considering their sentences.

If Bolsonaro is convicted on five charges and given the maximum sentence for each crime he could be imprisoned for 43 years.

But he can appeal the verdict to a full chamber of the Supreme Court.

His allies believe his conviction to be a foregone conclusion and are counting on Congress to pass an amnesty law to save him from prison.

B.Brunner--NZN